RAIN ?????

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werner
Posts: 433
Joined: Tue 24 Sep 2013, 23:35
Location: Cape Town

RAIN ?????

Post by werner » Sun 04 Mar 2018, 09:48

As my income is very much affected by our rain in the Western Cape, I use two websites for rain forecasts, https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/sou ... own/hourly that also has a forecast for two weeks and https://www.windguru.cz/91 that give it 3hourly for 10 days. Windguru is the more accurate of the two.

I needed something more like a six month forecast and got to this site.https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/180day ... 9&lon=18.4. This is their forecast from two weeks ahead for another 180 days. Every day it moves one day further.

Their forecast do change drastic every day, so I made a spreadsheet and update it (about) every day.Their forecast for rain is shocking if one think of Cape Town's average yearly rainfall of 788mm and the above mentioned rainfall is for our rainy season. I do not take it as perfect, but it gives me an indication as what might follow. Imagine only 10% of our yearly rain during coming winter with our dams already empty.

Kobus Botha is a bit more optimistic with just under 40% of normal. I did not save his photo and cant find it now.

I customer of mine that is servicing the agriculture with amongst other things weather and rain forecasts, said to me the 40% of normal is very close to his prediction.

The desaltination plants that is put up will only supply about 4 liters of water per person per day and the boreholes in the table mountain group aquifer is uncertain how much it can supply.

With our empty dams even 40% of normal winter rainfall is scary. This water restrictions and day zero ghost will probably be with us till after next winter.

Below is the total rainfall for six months as by metcheck
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johan wepener
Posts: 1170
Joined: Mon 24 Sep 2012, 17:24
Location: Durbanville

Re: RAIN ?????

Post by johan wepener » Sun 04 Mar 2018, 19:56

werner wrote:
Sun 04 Mar 2018, 09:48
As my income is very much affected by our rain in the Western Cape, I use two websites for rain forecasts, https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/sou ... own/hourly that also has a forecast for two weeks and https://www.windguru.cz/91 that give it 3hourly for 10 days. Windguru is the more accurate of the two.

I needed something more like a six month forecast and got to this site.https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/180day ... 9&lon=18.4. This is their forecast from two weeks ahead for another 180 days. Every day it moves one day further.

Their forecast do change drastic every day, so I made a spreadsheet and update it (about) every day.Their forecast for rain is shocking if one think of Cape Town's average yearly rainfall of 788mm and the above mentioned rainfall is for our rainy season. I do not take it as perfect, but it gives me an indication as what might follow. Imagine only 10% of our yearly rain during coming winter with our dams already empty.

Kobus Botha is a bit more optimistic with just under 40% of normal. I did not save his photo and cant find it now.

I customer of mine that is servicing the agriculture with amongst other things weather and rain forecasts, said to me the 40% of normal is very close to his prediction.

The desaltination plants that is put up will only supply about 4 liters of water per person per day and the boreholes in the table mountain group aquifer is uncertain how much it can supply.

With our empty dams even 40% of normal winter rainfall is scary. This water restrictions and day zero ghost will probably be with us till after next winter.

Below is the total rainfall for six months as by metcheck
This is scary stuff !!

johan
JOHAN WEPENER

IF YOU WISH TO DRAW AN INFERENCE IT HAS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH ALL THE PROVEN FACTS.IF NOT, THE INFERENCE CANNOT BE DRAWN

mdzgiovanni
Posts: 12
Joined: Tue 09 Jan 2018, 04:21

Re: RAIN ?????

Post by mdzgiovanni » Mon 05 Mar 2018, 05:07

Stay safe though.
Searching for the right and easy to install tonneau covers for my truck.

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Waterhond
Posts: 1081
Joined: Sat 29 Oct 2011, 12:01
Location: Pretoria

Re: RAIN ?????

Post by Waterhond » Mon 05 Mar 2018, 09:43

Hi Werner,

Your work is amazing ! I am an agricultural economist and deal with these things every day of my life, especially farmers calling me daily to find out where commodity prices are going.

Thanks for doing what you do. Wish we had this for the whole country.

However, worrying about weather conditions - something that we have no control over - is futile.

In any way, keep up the good work. You are a very important link in the chain.

Pieter

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werner
Posts: 433
Joined: Tue 24 Sep 2013, 23:35
Location: Cape Town

Re: RAIN ?????

Post by werner » Tue 06 Mar 2018, 06:31

Thanks Waterhond.

Problem is, do the politicians think what another dry winter could bring up.

What puzzels people is that the record two seasons in a row El Nino effect that caused the drought has already changed to La Nina. This should bring a lot of rain and nothing happens.

Its about time the Cape of Storms do his name Justice.

Who ever thought that we would hope for two or three good storms during a winter.

I'll keep on with the spreadsheet and also a sheet with the actual rain and a comparison with the average that was forecasted every month.

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werner
Posts: 433
Joined: Tue 24 Sep 2013, 23:35
Location: Cape Town

Re: RAIN ?????

Post by werner » Wed 16 May 2018, 19:31

Just an update on the six monthly rain prediction.

I do some days slip up and some days the site is not updated.

At the moment the prediction is running into November
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werner
Posts: 433
Joined: Tue 24 Sep 2013, 23:35
Location: Cape Town

Re: RAIN ?????

Post by werner » Wed 16 May 2018, 19:57

As Weather S A do not release any rainfall figures, I get the actual figures from https://www.wunderground.com/history/ai ... reqdb.wmo= that is using satellite information. One can almost get rainfall figures for any place in the world from them.

I do put the average prediction, worked out only on full month predictions with it.

Interesting is both Windguru and Time and date is forecasting just under 50 mm of rain for next week Friday.

Lets see what happens.

I could get a screenshot from Time and date, but Windguru do noy want to display the last 2 days rainfall.
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RASSIE
Posts: 6303
Joined: Tue 11 Sep 2007, 13:17
Location: Amanzimtoti, S.A.
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Re: RAIN ?????

Post by RASSIE » Fri 18 May 2018, 07:16

We get so much rain in Amanzimtoti that my driveway got green moss all over as if it is a lawn. We cut the pavement grass every week!
Rassie.
http://www.rassiesauto.co.za/
“Cowboys do not ride donkeys”
“I will die driving a V8”

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