RAIN ?????
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RAIN ?????
As my income is very much affected by our rain in the Western Cape, I use two websites for rain forecasts, https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/sou ... own/hourly that also has a forecast for two weeks and https://www.windguru.cz/91 that give it 3hourly for 10 days. Windguru is the more accurate of the two.
I needed something more like a six month forecast and got to this site.https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/180day ... 9&lon=18.4. This is their forecast from two weeks ahead for another 180 days. Every day it moves one day further.
Their forecast do change drastic every day, so I made a spreadsheet and update it (about) every day.Their forecast for rain is shocking if one think of Cape Town's average yearly rainfall of 788mm and the above mentioned rainfall is for our rainy season. I do not take it as perfect, but it gives me an indication as what might follow. Imagine only 10% of our yearly rain during coming winter with our dams already empty.
Kobus Botha is a bit more optimistic with just under 40% of normal. I did not save his photo and cant find it now.
I customer of mine that is servicing the agriculture with amongst other things weather and rain forecasts, said to me the 40% of normal is very close to his prediction.
The desaltination plants that is put up will only supply about 4 liters of water per person per day and the boreholes in the table mountain group aquifer is uncertain how much it can supply.
With our empty dams even 40% of normal winter rainfall is scary. This water restrictions and day zero ghost will probably be with us till after next winter.
Below is the total rainfall for six months as by metcheck
I needed something more like a six month forecast and got to this site.https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/180day ... 9&lon=18.4. This is their forecast from two weeks ahead for another 180 days. Every day it moves one day further.
Their forecast do change drastic every day, so I made a spreadsheet and update it (about) every day.Their forecast for rain is shocking if one think of Cape Town's average yearly rainfall of 788mm and the above mentioned rainfall is for our rainy season. I do not take it as perfect, but it gives me an indication as what might follow. Imagine only 10% of our yearly rain during coming winter with our dams already empty.
Kobus Botha is a bit more optimistic with just under 40% of normal. I did not save his photo and cant find it now.
I customer of mine that is servicing the agriculture with amongst other things weather and rain forecasts, said to me the 40% of normal is very close to his prediction.
The desaltination plants that is put up will only supply about 4 liters of water per person per day and the boreholes in the table mountain group aquifer is uncertain how much it can supply.
With our empty dams even 40% of normal winter rainfall is scary. This water restrictions and day zero ghost will probably be with us till after next winter.
Below is the total rainfall for six months as by metcheck
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Re: RAIN ?????
This is scary stuff !!werner wrote: ↑Sun 04 Mar 2018, 09:48As my income is very much affected by our rain in the Western Cape, I use two websites for rain forecasts, https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/sou ... own/hourly that also has a forecast for two weeks and https://www.windguru.cz/91 that give it 3hourly for 10 days. Windguru is the more accurate of the two.
I needed something more like a six month forecast and got to this site.https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/180day ... 9&lon=18.4. This is their forecast from two weeks ahead for another 180 days. Every day it moves one day further.
Their forecast do change drastic every day, so I made a spreadsheet and update it (about) every day.Their forecast for rain is shocking if one think of Cape Town's average yearly rainfall of 788mm and the above mentioned rainfall is for our rainy season. I do not take it as perfect, but it gives me an indication as what might follow. Imagine only 10% of our yearly rain during coming winter with our dams already empty.
Kobus Botha is a bit more optimistic with just under 40% of normal. I did not save his photo and cant find it now.
I customer of mine that is servicing the agriculture with amongst other things weather and rain forecasts, said to me the 40% of normal is very close to his prediction.
The desaltination plants that is put up will only supply about 4 liters of water per person per day and the boreholes in the table mountain group aquifer is uncertain how much it can supply.
With our empty dams even 40% of normal winter rainfall is scary. This water restrictions and day zero ghost will probably be with us till after next winter.
Below is the total rainfall for six months as by metcheck
johan
JOHAN WEPENER
IF YOU WISH TO DRAW AN INFERENCE IT HAS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH ALL THE PROVEN FACTS.IF NOT, THE INFERENCE CANNOT BE DRAWN
IF YOU WISH TO DRAW AN INFERENCE IT HAS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH ALL THE PROVEN FACTS.IF NOT, THE INFERENCE CANNOT BE DRAWN
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Re: RAIN ?????
Stay safe though.
Need to take a break. My set of foose wheels and toyo tires arrived. I'll be replacing the wheels on my own.
Re: RAIN ?????
Hi Werner,
Your work is amazing ! I am an agricultural economist and deal with these things every day of my life, especially farmers calling me daily to find out where commodity prices are going.
Thanks for doing what you do. Wish we had this for the whole country.
However, worrying about weather conditions - something that we have no control over - is futile.
In any way, keep up the good work. You are a very important link in the chain.
Pieter
Your work is amazing ! I am an agricultural economist and deal with these things every day of my life, especially farmers calling me daily to find out where commodity prices are going.
Thanks for doing what you do. Wish we had this for the whole country.
However, worrying about weather conditions - something that we have no control over - is futile.
In any way, keep up the good work. You are a very important link in the chain.
Pieter
Re: RAIN ?????
Thanks Waterhond.
Problem is, do the politicians think what another dry winter could bring up.
What puzzels people is that the record two seasons in a row El Nino effect that caused the drought has already changed to La Nina. This should bring a lot of rain and nothing happens.
Its about time the Cape of Storms do his name Justice.
Who ever thought that we would hope for two or three good storms during a winter.
I'll keep on with the spreadsheet and also a sheet with the actual rain and a comparison with the average that was forecasted every month.
Problem is, do the politicians think what another dry winter could bring up.
What puzzels people is that the record two seasons in a row El Nino effect that caused the drought has already changed to La Nina. This should bring a lot of rain and nothing happens.
Its about time the Cape of Storms do his name Justice.
Who ever thought that we would hope for two or three good storms during a winter.
I'll keep on with the spreadsheet and also a sheet with the actual rain and a comparison with the average that was forecasted every month.
Re: RAIN ?????
Just an update on the six monthly rain prediction.
I do some days slip up and some days the site is not updated.
At the moment the prediction is running into November
I do some days slip up and some days the site is not updated.
At the moment the prediction is running into November
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Re: RAIN ?????
As Weather S A do not release any rainfall figures, I get the actual figures from https://www.wunderground.com/history/ai ... reqdb.wmo= that is using satellite information. One can almost get rainfall figures for any place in the world from them.
I do put the average prediction, worked out only on full month predictions with it.
Interesting is both Windguru and Time and date is forecasting just under 50 mm of rain for next week Friday.
Lets see what happens.
I could get a screenshot from Time and date, but Windguru do noy want to display the last 2 days rainfall.
I do put the average prediction, worked out only on full month predictions with it.
Interesting is both Windguru and Time and date is forecasting just under 50 mm of rain for next week Friday.
Lets see what happens.
I could get a screenshot from Time and date, but Windguru do noy want to display the last 2 days rainfall.
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Re: RAIN ?????
We get so much rain in Amanzimtoti that my driveway got green moss all over as if it is a lawn. We cut the pavement grass every week!
Rassie.
Rassie.
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